President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants Turkish couples to have more children, but his government's financial incentives have failed to halt the steady drop in births.
On May 2, 2026, Erdogan stood in Istanbul and unveiled the Family and Population 10-Year Vision covering 2026 through 2035. He declared the period the Decade of Family and Population and urged citizens to treat population growth as a national priority. The plan expands cash grants for each child and offers subsidized loans for housing tied to family size.
Turkey's total fertility rate reached 1.48 children per woman in 2024. That figure has stayed below the 2.1 replacement level for eight consecutive years. Government data also show single-person households now account for 20.5 percent of all homes. Among adults aged 20 to 24, 79 percent of women and 94 percent of men have never married.
Fertility rates were higher in periods when income per capita was lower.
Erdogan made that observation during the May announcement. He also noted that later marriage and higher divorce rates are driving the decline. "Our marriage age is rising, divorce rates are increasing, and as a result, our fertility rate is falling," he said. "The figures are worrying for all of us."
Officials have rolled out monthly stipends for newborns and low-interest mortgages for couples with at least three children. Local municipalities run counseling programs that promote early marriage. Yet young adults continue to postpone family formation. High living costs in major cities, long work hours, and limited child-care options remain central concerns for many couples.
Reports from Hurriyet Daily News documented the launch of the 10-year plan and the latest fertility statistics released by the Turkish Statistical Institute. Coverage in the New York Times highlighted that similar incentive packages in previous years produced only temporary upticks in births before rates resumed their downward path. Nordic Monitor described a nationwide mobilization campaign that includes public service announcements and workplace seminars, yet participation among target age groups has stayed low.
Demographers point to broader social shifts. More women pursue higher education and careers. Housing prices have risen faster than wages in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Many young adults live with parents into their late twenties, delaying independent households and marriage. These patterns predate the current incentive programs and have proven resistant to financial nudges alone.
Erdogan's administration continues to frame population growth as essential for economic strength and national security. The 2026-2035 vision includes targets for reversing the fertility slide by the mid-2030s. Early results from pilot programs in smaller provinces show modest increases in second births among existing families, but first births among younger cohorts remain flat.
